timing your technology reflection

From pg48, A System of Invention, Lesch2006: Hrleins attitude was based not simply, or even primarily, on the situation of any particular area of research considered in isolation, but on his comprehensive overview of advance in areas in which chemistry and biomedicine intersected. With so many disruptive technologies on the horizon, timing your move into each can make the difference between getting ahead of the competition and falling irreparably behind. Enough progress in one domain (particularly computing power), can sometimes make up for stasis in another domain. Its perfectly obvious. Michie went on to point out that in a previous case, Charles Babbage, his work was foredoomed by it being an unripe time due to hardware limitations and represented a complete waste of time & money17. In my first draft of this essay in 2012, I noted that we see what looks like a Bitcoin bubble as the price inflates from ~$0 to $171.5$130.02012yet, if Bitcoin were the Real Deal, we would expect large price increases as people learn of it and it directly gains value from increased use, an ecosystem slowly unlocking the fancy cryptographic features, etc. On phones! When a participant crosses the finish line, the RFID tag is read by an RFID reader which transmits the tag's ID to the timing software. It is not always as easy a task as it sounds. Explains that technology refers to a wide range of electronic materials and learning methods, including video production, distance learning, and smart classrooms. So I read a lot of old papers. In particular, VCs are trying to determine whether this founder will be able to create a compelling story around the company mission in order to attract great engineers, executives, sales and marketing people, etc. Facebook is the biggest archive of photographs there has ever been, with truly colossal storage requirements; could it have succeeded in the 1990s? He viewed the academic-industrial connection as crucial and mutually beneficial. You dont have to be bipolar to be an entrepreneur, but it might help. In a counterfactual world, Google went down in flames quite easily because it never hit upon the advertising innovations that saved it, no matter how much you liked PageRank, and anything else is hindsight bias. The key to reflection is learning how to take perspective on one's own actions and experiencein other words, to examine that experience rather than just living it"[1], stages, reflective . Launching too early means failure, but being conservative & launching later is just as bad because regardless of forecasting, a good idea will draw overly-optimistic researchers or entrepreneurs to it like moths to a flame: all get immolated but the one with the dumb luck to kiss the flame at the perfect instant, who then wins everything, at which point everyone can see that the optimal time is past. Contextualized online search and research skills. It may be easier said than done, but one of the biggest factors in taking time to reflect should be stillness and, if possible, solitude. Part of the explanation is survivorship bias causing hindsight bias. Similarly, Mark Zuckerberg was not the first and only Zuckerberg, he was the last Zuckerberg; many people made social networking fortunes before himmaybe Orkut didnt make its Google inventor a fortune, but you can bet that MySpaces DeWolfe and Anderson did well. Underlying this view was his definition and differentiation of the relevant disciplines and his belief in their generally excellent condition in Germany. Clearly doomed to failure when they refused Facebooks $3.9$3.02013b buyout offer and Facebook launched a direct competitor; by February2020, they had failed their way to a marketcap of >$100b., Where there is, as Musk describes it, a graveyard of companies like Coda Automotive or Fisker Automotive. One reason is that our form of energy, oil, is misunderstood by most people, including many of us in the petroleum industry. Timing Technology Overview Timers, counters, and clocks are a critical component in most embedded systems. This happens even in literature: Doyles Sherlock Holmes stories werent the first to invent clues, but the last (Moretti2000, Moretti2005, Batuman2005), with other detective fiction writers doing things that can only be called grotesque; Moretti, baffled, recounts that one detective, having deduced that the drug is in the third cup of coffee, proceeds to drink the coffee., To give a personal example: while researching Registered Reports, supposedly invented in 2013, I discovered that they had been invented at least 10 times dating back to 1966.. Will the founder be able to explain her vision in a way that causes others to want to join her on this mission? Browning did not read it as we read it now. AI researcher Donald Michie, claimed in 1970, based on a 1969 poll, that a majority of AI researchers estimated 10100 years for AGI (or 19792069) and that There is also fair agreement that the chief obstacles are not hardware limitations.16 While AI researcher surveys still suggest that wasnt a bad range (Gruetzemacher et al 2019), the success of deep learning makes clear that hardware was a huge limitation, and resources 50 years ago fell short by at least 6 orders of magnitude. Any good idea can be made to sound like a bad idea & probably did sound like a bad idea then5, and Bessemer VCs anti-profile is a list of good ideas which Bessemer declined to invest in. And Lanier implies that Japan alone spent a lot of money: Jaron Lanier: The components have finally gotten cheap enough that we can start to talk about them as being accessible in the way that everybodys always wantedMoores law is so interesting because its not just the same components getting cheaper, but it really changes the way you do things. The organizational pattern that emerges more or less clearly from Hrleins lectures is closely associated with his view of the typical phases or cycles of development of research in chemotherapy or physiological chemistry. By mid-July our funds were so meager that on Friday we were down to about $21,136.3$5,000.01973 in the checking account, while we needed $101,454.2$24,000.01973 for the jet fuel payment. Ed Boyden on Minding your Brain (Ep. The three outstanding problems in physics, in a certain sense, were never worked on while I was at Bell Labs. UHF RFID systems use frequencies in the 860-960 MHz range and can be used to detect as many as 1,000+ tags per second as far as 10-15 meters from the reader, making them ideal for wide and busy finish lines where several tagged participants may be crossing in a short space of time. PayPals major challenge, for example, was not finding a market like eBay power sellers, but coping with fraud as they scaled, which apparently was the undoing of any number of rivals., Personally, I was still using Dogpile until at least 2000.. At that time, I had already become a member of SPE in order to take the SPE Journal, where the serious research in the petroleum industry was published. The third big area of team investigation for VCs focuses on the founders leadership abilities. 2. Actually, our son played a role in all this as well, and I look forward to seeing Alex make his mark in the energy industry before long. Where does this leave us? Its Moores law. (Academics invent ideas about computers, which then go into mass production for business needs, which result in exponential decreases in costs, sparking countless academic applications of computers, yielding more applied results which can be commercialized, and so on in a virtuous circle.) This sounds a good deal like individuals pursuing standard careers & occasionally exploring unusual strategies like a startup; they will occasionally explore strategies which have performed badly (ie. (All of which was doubtless why Page & Brin tried & failed to sell Google to AltaVista & Excite & Yahoo early on, and negotiated a possible sale with Yahoo as late as 2002 which they ultimately rejected.) The monopoly oil has as the sole fuel for transportation could become a serious drawback for future progress and prosperity (for more about this, visit www.ceeti.org). why should a podcasting company, Odeo, have led to Twitter? Why did we wait so long for the bicycle?). Without technology eradicated disease such as smallpox or the Spanish flu could have been still rampant since the 1800's. Getting a simple cold could be life threatening without technology. Without the funds for the fuel companies, we couldnt have flown anyway. Freds luck held again. The origins of many startups are highly idiosyncratic & chancy; eg. God's timing is perfect, it's true; His ways are higher, beyond our view. See also An Oral History of Nintendos Power Glove, and Polygons oral history of the Kinect, All the money in the world couldnt make Kinect happen: For a moment a decade ago, the game industry looked like a very different place.. I was expecting smartphones to take off in mid 2004 and was disappointed over and over again. What made them a success was that they happened to give the pinata a whack at the exact moment where some S-curves or events hit the right point. Today, I am not really a proponent of type-curve matching per se, but rather with using the derivative response to recognize flow regimes.13 We now can use data processing originally designed for convolution or deconvolution of downhole pressure and flow-rate data for analysis of production data.14 This approach is particularly effective in wells with permanent gauges. This presents a conflict between personal and social incentives. (The best I can think of would be to sell any Murdoch stock you owned when you heard they were buying MySpace, but offhand Im not sure that Murdoch didnt just stagnate rather than drop as MySpace increasingly turned out to be a writeoff.) However, the pressure data showed the same oscillatory behavior. He could spot the points where the enemys line was broken, and the reverse salients in his own. In1998! Those who lump oil in the energy mix as though it competes with coal, nuclear, and renewable energy resources have missed a crucial point. These are tempting, but likely cant generate outsize returns because they are simply too obvious and invite too much competition that squeezes out the economic rents. After all, why would they say no? These days you put some kind of camera on the head and look around in the room and it just calculates where you arethe headsets are self-sufficient instead of relying on an external reference infrastructure. A more practical approach is to embrace uncertainty, taking a reinforcement learning perspective. What if you believed the story they were trying to tell us: that each year, as sure as winter follows summer, and day follows night, computers would get half again better, and half again smaller, and half again cheaper, year after year, and that in 5 decades they would be 30 million times more powerful than they were then, and cheap. Technology has existed for many years, maybe not the type of technology we have now because it managed to evolve throughout time. In the U.S., about one-third of the oil is used as a feedstock for a great many materials and products we could scarcely imagine doing without, and the remaining oil is used for transportation. Were not sure what. Later: oh, apparently eBay sellers like us so much theyre making their own promotional materials? Previously, Ms. Ehlig-Economides has taught at Texas A&M University, Stanford University and the University of Alaska, Fairbanks. If we think about multi-level optimization systems & population-based training, and optimization of evolution like strong amplifiers (which resemble small but networked communities: Pavlogiannis et al 2018), that would suggest we should have a bias against both large and small groups/institutes/granters, because small ones are buffeted by random noise/drift and cant afford well-powered experiments, but large ones are too narrow-minded.30 But a network of medium ones can both explore well and then efficiently replicate the best findings across the network to exploit them. The points where the enemys line was broken, and clocks are a critical component most... Why did we wait so long for the bicycle? ) learning perspective so long the. Most embedded systems more practical approach is to embrace uncertainty, taking a learning! And social incentives as crucial and mutually beneficial presents a conflict between personal and social incentives three outstanding in... 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